BeijingвЂ™s supporters in Australia would almost certainly respond in kind. AustraliaвЂ™s Taiwanese diaspora - concentrated in Brisbane and numbering in the вЂњtens of thousandsвЂќ В - could take to the streets, inspired by the globalisation of Hong KongвЂ™s crisis. China could retaliate by taking punitive measures against Australian exports as it did in response to SeoulвЂ™s installation of the THAAD missile defence system. There are a number of potential consequences for Australia should a crisis emerge.В If the United States came to TaiwanвЂ™s defence, Washington might invoke the ANZUS Treaty and request CanberraвЂ™s assistance. 'Growth Projections and Complexity Rankings' (2019). Taiwan's exports in 2017, The Growth Lab at Harvard University, Major conflict could swiftly reverse this regionвЂ™s economic miracle, triggering an Australian recession given our considerable trade dependence upon China, with serious consequences for the Australian economy and standard of living.

Some of AustraliaвЂ™s largest trading partners (China, Japan and South Korea) share the islandвЂ™s Northeast Asian neighbourhood. Taiwan is a critical link in global supply chains, as a provider of advanced manufacturing. But whichever path Xi chooses, the risk of a major strategic crisis - and possibly even conflict - will continue to rise. Or he could up the ante, employing actual military force in an effort to compel Taiwan back into the mainlandвЂ™s embrace. Д¬hinaвЂ™s president, Xi Jinping, could stay this course, pressuring the island economically, diplomatically and militarily. This was after she and her independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rejected the so-called вЂ1992 consensusвЂ™ - a murky cross-strait compromise which implies that Taiwan is part of China. The potential for a regional security crisis is becoming less remote.Д«eijing froze all diplomatic ties with the island from the beginning of TsaiвЂ™s first term in 2016. They threaten to intensify still further following Tsai Ing-wenвЂ™s landslide victory in TaiwanвЂ™s January 2020 presidential election. Given the high stakes involved, this policy brief argues for a more activist Australian diplomacy in advocating crisis management and avoidance mechanisms designed both to reduce the risk of inadvertent conflict and to manage a full-blown Taiwan crisis.ДЄfter decades of relative stability, tensions have returned to the longstanding Taiwan flashpoint. These tensions have sparked renewed debate in Australia over whether conflict would trigger AustraliaвЂ™s obligations under the ANZUS alliance.ДЄustralian policymakers should be doing much more to head off the possibility of a Taiwan conflict, heeding the diplomacy of the Menzies government during the 1954вЂ“55 Taiwan Strait Crisis. However, these tensions are ultimately the product of changes in the dynamics of the triangular relationship between China, Taiwan and the United States and, most importantly, the balance of military power underpinning those ties.

Current tensions between China and Taiwan, and the fear that a major conflict could erupt, are generally attributed to BeijingвЂ™s growing assertiveness. A major strategic crisis is brewing across the Taiwan Strait, one which threatens to be significantly more serious than earlier crises of the 1950s and mid-1990s.

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